Donald Trump Could Break Records in Six States, Polls Show

Former President Donald Trump could break records in six safe Republican states next week, if current polling numbers play out.
Newsweek analysis of current survey results against presidential election outcomes since 1972 showed potential record-breaking voting-margin results in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Tennessee.
While all these states are seen as safe for the GOP, winning margins fluctuate over time, and some Republican candidates, including Trump, have not seen sizable victories there for several years.
“Republicans are very anxious to defeat the Democrats,” Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, told Newsweek on Thursday. “They are very worried and scared about what would happen if the Democrats won the presidency again and won control of Congress, and so consequently, as is often the case with the ‘out’ party, their voters are particularly interested in voting.”
Much focus has been on swing states this election, which is not unusual, but a growing number of voters could push up Trump’s popular vote numbers against Vice President Kamala Harris in traditionally red states.
In Missouri, the previous voter share record was set in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won his second term. Then, the Republican gained 60 percent of the vote. The most recent polling for Trump gave him 58 percent.
Again, it was 1984 when the last record was set in Montana, with Reagan receiving 60.5 percent of the vote. Trump’s latest figure put him at 59 percent.
In Nebraska, Reagan won the 1984 election with 70.6 percent, with Trump’s most recent numbers putting him just .6 percent behind that. The state famously splits its Electoral College votes, with Districts 1 and 3 currently leaning more toward Trump and District 2 toward Harris.
Another 1984 record saw Reagan receive 68.6 percent of voter support. Recent polling put Trump at 67 percent.
When Reagan won his second term, he received 63 percent of South Dakota’s votes. In 2024, Trump is one point behind that.
The only state with a non-1984 record in this list was Tennessee. Its last Republican record was in 1972, when Richard Nixon won 67.7 percent of the vote. Since then, there have been smaller margins between the Republican and Democratic candidates.
In 2024, Trump’s current polling puts him at 62 percent, greater than his previous two campaigns when he won the state with about 60 percent.
Olsen told Newsweek that in many of these states, people do not usually vote as they do not feel their votes matter, as their states will stay red anyway. Now, he said, voting would show stronger support for Trump in the popular vote.
“His approval rating, while still lower than his unfavorable rating, is going up,” Olsen said. “It’s not just hard-core Republicans that are getting enthusiastic about him, it’s some people who used to dislike him.”
Olsen said that some of those telling pollsters that they were voting for Trump had not necessarily voted in the past three elections but now felt they needed to because of their worries about another four years of Democratic leadership.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email Thursday afternoon.